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Daily Maximum Temperature Changes in March

Daily Maximum Temperature Changes in March

There is a general trend of increase in day max temperature. Under the high scenario, this tends to accelerate after the 2040s. Probability bands get wider and flatter through time, more so for the high scenario; and all are skewed such that there are significantly higher temperatures beyond the high end of our chosen 67% band (for example averages could be reach over 18ºC by 2080 under high emissions). Spatially, you can see that temperatures tend to increase towards the south-east corner of the country. March 2080 temperature curves are narrower than for the March-May Spring season, hence the change in temperature of the hottest day is likely to be a little lower, suggesting central estimates of: approx 2ºC warmer under the low scenario and approx 3ºC under the high scenario.

Under the Low emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily maximum temperatures for March:

  • By the 2050s, will be between 10.9ºC and 12.7ºC. This would be between 1.0ºC and 2.9ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
  • By the 2080s, will be between 11.4ºC and 13.6ºC. This would be between 1.5ºC and 3.7ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.

Under the High emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily maximum temperatures for March:

  • By the 2050s, will be between 11.3ºC and 13.4ºC. This would be between 1.5ºC and 3.6ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
  • By the 2080s, will be between 12.0ºC and 15.3ºC. This would be between 2.2ºC and 5.5ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.

Probability range

Probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2050s

March Daily Maximum temperatures in the 2050s

Probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2080s Probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios, showing Change temperatures in the 2080s (compared to 1961-90 period average)

March Daily Maximum temperatures in the 2080s

Time and space

Graph showing increase in temperature from the 2020s to the 2080s for the Low emission scenario. Probability bands are shown from 10%, through 50% to 90%. Graph showing increase in temperature from the 2020s to the 2080s for the High emission scenario. Probability bands are shown from 10%, through 50% to 90%.
Daily maximum temperature for March through time under the Low emissions scenario Daily maximum temperature for March through time under the High emissions scenario
Map of temperature, in the 2080s, at the 50% probability level, under the Low emission scenario Map of temperature, in the 2080s, at the 50% probability level, under the High emission scenario
Map of daily maximum temperature for March, in the 2080s, under the Low emissions scenario (at 50% probability) Map of daily maximum temperature for March, in the 2080s, under the High emissions scenario (at 50% probability)

Hottest day

Estimates for the highest and lowest temperatures are only available at a seasonal level. It is therefore sensible to check how the seasonal averages compare to the monthly averages.

Spring seasonal probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2080s Spring seasonal hottest day probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2080s

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Please notice that all of the maps and graphs are copyright © UK Climate Projections 2009

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